baccaratvega|白酒行业专题研究报告：白酒业绩兑现强 分化中坚定布局强势龙头

Investment logic as a wholeBaccaratvegaLiquor sector 23 years-24Q1 regardless of income, performance exchange degree is still high, the market has many doubts about the performance of liquor enterprises under the weak recovery of the industry, but the business model of liquor industryBaccaratvegaThe superiority can still give the strong wine enterprises the ability to span the cycle, and the strong ones are always strong. High performance exchange degree, strong stability and steadily improved dividend level are all the embodiment of liquor investment value, and low expectations and valuation performance-price ratio range continue to recommend layout opportunities. At present, wine enterprises are more focused on fighting and refinement, and it can be seen from the differentiation of performance quality that wine enterprises with superior brand power, differentiation and β-dominance can achieve higher quality development. continue to recommend high-end wine and sub-track leading wine enterprises (Fenjiu, regional leader, etc.). In addition, it is suggested that attention should be paid to the performance / valuation flexibility of outward liquor enterprises under pro-cyclical logic. 1) Revenue side: the cash is high after the scenario is repaired, and the differentiation of payback quality is intensified. The overall income of the plate is realized well, matching with the trend that the peak season of the Spring Festival is still prosperous, there is no restriction on the consumption scene during the Spring Festival this year, in which Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have exceeded expectations; there is obvious differentiation within sub-high-end and regional liquors. the impact of the industry boom is significantly stronger, with the base market consumption cognitive advantage, enjoy the Spring Festival return demand release of regional wine performance is relatively stable. From the point of view of the return end, the differentiation among wine enterprises will be more obvious. 1) the advance balance of the liquor section at the end of 24Q1 is 40.8 billion, which is basically the same as that of 40.6 billion in the same period last year. In the internal structure, Maotai, laojiao and Fenjiu have increased compared with the same period last year. 2) the 23Q4+24Q1 sales of the plate received 264.1 billion yuan, + 12% year-on-year, which is lower than the 15% growth rate of the revenue end; the balance of receivables at the end of 24Q1 is 45 billion yuan, + 30% year-on-year. In the Spring Festival, most wine companies relax the restrictions on bill repayment. Overall, the strong brand potential of wine enterprises such as Maotai, Fenjiu, as well as some regional wine enterprises relatively better payback quality. From the perspective of volume-price logic of revenue, the marginal contribution of 23-year sales growth increases while the marginal contribution of price increases decreases, which is consistent with the trend of moderate increase in the concentration of head wine enterprises under the weak recovery of the industry. From the perspective of investment logic, the head wine enterprises that have achieved nationalization rely more on dealers to achieve revenue growth; pan-high-end wine enterprises, some regional wine enterprise dealers still have a high growth rate, but the slope as a whole is shrinking, which matches the cautious mood of the current channel towards attracting investment. 2) profit side: the structural improvement trend continues, and the dividend is stable and rising. Plate profit elasticity continues to cash, 23 years, 24Q1 plate home net profit growth rate is higher than the revenue end growth rate. The driving profit elasticity mainly includes the increase of gross sales difference under product structure optimization + digital enabling precision marketing, and the optimization of management expense rate under scale effect, the above logic continues to be realized in 23 years; the profit elasticity of a single quarter is easily disturbed by factors such as tax payment rhythm, marketing activity development-expense rhythm and so on. Looking forward to the 24-year annual dimension, we expect that the logic is still being interpreted. From the perspective of dividend dimension, the overall high dividend level is maintained, and the dividend payment rate of most wine enterprises is 50%. The dividend payment rate of Wuliangye, Yanghe and other wine enterprises in 23 years is higher than that in 22 years. 3) Institutional shareholding: heavy fund holdings, Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect shares increased month-on-month. The proportion of 24Q1's overall shareholding increased month-on-month (the market value of 24Q1's underlying shares accounted for the fund's stock investment market value + 0Baccaratvega.19pct to 5Baccaratvega.83%), the rate of return of SW liquor index is + 0.35% during the period. From the point of view of subdivision, the month-on-month increases in heavy stock holdings are Guizhou Moutai (+ 7%), Wuliangye (+ 8%), Shanxi Fenjiu (+ 1%), Jinshiyuan (+ 9%), and Yili (+ 7%). Considering that Guizhou Moutai-Wuliangye is the target of heavy stock indexes such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, after excluding index funds, Guizhou Moutai is changed to-17%, and Wuliangye is + 1%. We can still see that the market has a strong certainty of potential energy, or the channel volume-price strategy is expected to meet the inflection point. From the perspective of the shareholding ratio of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Connect, the proportion has continued to decline since Q2 in 23 years, but the proportion of head wine enterprises in 24Q1 has increased, but most of them have not yet returned to the end of 23Q1 level. Northward core positions are mainly Maotai-Wuliangye, which has a dominant brand strength. Risks suggest that macroeconomic recovery is not as expected, industry policy risks, and food safety risks. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.