cryptogamesreddit|大宗商品分析师Andrea Lisi评4月非农

Special topic: April non-agricultural far lower than expected, February and March non-agricultural was revised down 2Cryptogamesreddit.20,000 people

① is just likeCryptogamesredditAs I feared after President Powell's press conference on Wednesday, he may already know that today's jobs report is going to be even weaker. ② non-farm payrolls are 175000, while the market is widely expected to be 243000, with average hourly wages falling below 4 per cent. ③ 's current economic cycle is showing signs similar to many other cycles and may be on the verge of a hard landing rather than a soft landing. At present, the labor market, the backbone of the US economy, is in danger. The financial situation of the average American is far from sound, which should be of serious concern. The balance of ④ credit cards has reached unprecedented levels and the savings rate has fallen to a record low. In this case, many low-and middle-income Americans are particularly vulnerable. If unemployment rises sharply and unemployment increases, there will be no fiscal cushion for a rainy day. Since consumption accounts for almost 70% of GDP in ⑤, demand is likely to remain very weak until the deleveraging process is completed. When the cycle changes, I think the decline in inflation will be in line with the extent of the recession. ⑥ my favorite indicator these days is the credit spread between investment-grade and high-yield bonds, both of which are at historic lows. Once, even before the economy weakens, these spreads soar, and that's when we have to worry.