pfluegertemplar141934|预测：市场遭狙击！钢价要大跌？

Source: Steel and steel prices

In market sentiment and realitypfluegertemplar141934Under the double wrestlingpfluegertemplar141934, the future direction of the steel market seems confusing.

As the traditional off-season in June approaches, testing of policy effectiveness has become the focus. The recent fluctuations in steel prices indicate that the market is at a crossroads of adjustment. For the pulse of tomorrow's steel market, let us deeply analyze...

Overview of influencing factors

1pfluegertemplar141934. The "trade-in" policy has blossomed everywhere

As of the 7th, more than 70 cities across the country have responded to the "old-for-new" policy. Although it is still in the early stages of exploration, it has huge potential and is expected to drive market vitality. In the future, urban participation and intensity may be further enhanced, injecting long-term impetus into the market.

2pfluegertemplar141934. Industrial profits pick up

In April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size across the country turned from negative to positive, reversing from a decline of 3.5% in March to a growth of 4.0%, and the growth rate rebounded by 7.5 percentage points, indicating that the operating conditions of enterprises have improved and brought confidence to the steel market.

3. Excavator sales are picking up signals

CME predicts that sales of excavators (including exports) will be approximately 16200 units in May, a year-on-year increase of about 5%. Among them, the domestic market is expected to grow by nearly 19%, and the export market will decline slightly. The recovery of the construction machinery market indicates an increase in infrastructure activities and is good for steel demand.

spot market

Rebar: Although expectations for resumption of production have increased, the approaching rainy season may affect the release of demand. Although inventories have dropped, shipping pressure still exists, and the risk of a market correction appears. Rebar may stabilize and fall tomorrow.

Hot coils and medium boards: Hot coils have been weakened by policy stimulus effects, and demand has recovered to be verified; the medium board has slowed down due to fluctuations in raw materials, and both have shown a stable and weak trend.

Strip steel, profiles and pipes: Affected by increased supply, weak demand and inventory pressure, strip steel, profiles and pipes are facing correction pressure, and market sentiment is biased towards stable and weak.

Raw material market dynamics

Steel billets are affected by the weakening of the market and are purchasing cautiously; iron ore and coke are facing correction pressure, and scrap steel is weak amid cost support and demand fluctuations; pig iron is expected to be adjusted due to falling cost expectations and sluggish demand.

trend forecast

The current market is hovering between macro expectations and actual demand, and the trend of molten iron output has become a key observation point. The real progress of the real estate market recovery will determine the intensity of future demand. After the recent rise in steel prices, pressure for correction has emerged in the short term. It is expected that the trend of steel prices will be mainly stable with decline tomorrow, with an adjustment range of 10-30 yuan