davidfishmanpoker| Everbright Futures: May 22 Energy and Chemical Daily

Crude oil:

SC2407, the main contract for crude oil, closed down 0% on Tuesday.Davidfishmanpoker.92%, at 612Davidfishmanpoker.2 yuan per barrel; WTI June contract closed down 0.54 US dollars per barrel to 79.26 US dollars per barrel, down 0.68 per cent; Brent July contract closed down 0.83 US dollars per barrel to 82.88 US dollars per barrel, down 0.99 per cent. The United States will sell reserves of northeastern states on May 28, the U.S. Department of Energy said on Tuesday.DavidfishmanpokerNearly 1 million barrels of gasoline. In addition, API data showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, while distillate stocks fell. Recently, oil prices are mainly affected by macro factors.DavidfishmanpokerDue to the impact of the three major institutions, the reduction of the growth rate of global crude oil demand during the year reflects the beginning of a shift in expectations of the crude oil market. However, in the short term, the peak season for overseas gasoline consumption is approaching, and the American Automobile Association expects the number of travelers during the Memorial Day holiday next week to reach the highest level in nearly two decades. and seeing that the price gap between the cracking prices of overseas oil products and the apparent demand for oil products in the United States have rebounded, it is expected that short-term oil prices may stabilize and pick up against the backdrop of a marginal rebound in demand.

Fuel oil:

On Tuesday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous period, closed up 0.37% at 3483 yuan / ton, while LU2408, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed down 0.98% at 4231 yuan / ton. Customs data show that China exported 1.7333 million tons of bonded marine oil in April, an increase of 321100 tons, or 22.74 percent, over the previous month. From January to April, China exported a total of 6.1704 million tons of bonded marine oil. From a fundamental point of view, the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil tends to be strong, and the market of high-sulfur fuel oil is still supported. In terms of high sulfur, supply is beginning to gradually shrink, while summer power generation demand in South Asian countries will provide some support for the future fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil. Therefore, we also see that the recent trend of high sulfur in the inner and outer market is relatively stronger than that of low sulfur, especially the price difference between high and low sulfur in the inner disk continues to narrow. It is expected that in the short term, under the support of the supply and demand side, this situation of high sulfur stronger than low sulfur will continue, and the price difference between high and low sulfur will remain at a low level.

Asphalt:

On Tuesday, BU2409, the main contract for asphalt in the previous period, closed down 0.4% at 3694 yuan / ton. According to the latest customs data, China's import of diluted asphalt was 303700 tons in April 2024, down 37.5% from the previous month and up 151.2% from a year earlier. From January to April, China's total import of diluted asphalt was 2.0552 million tons, down 52.4 percent from the same period last year. Despite recent news from the market that the United States may extend some companies' oil business licenses in Venezuela, the diluted asphalt discount has remained stable in recent months, and the rebound in supply is not obvious at present, but it is expected that some refineries will return to production capacity next month, which may bring some supply pressure. On the demand side, there have been signs of a marginal rebound in terminal demand recently, but it is still weak compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the short-term asphalt panel price is still dominated by interval shocks, paying attention to the degree of incremental cashing at both ends of supply and demand.

Rubber:

On Tuesday, as of the close of trading on Tuesday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai glue, fell 140 yuan / ton to 14725 yuan / ton, NR fell 45 yuan / ton to 12290 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 70 yuan / ton to 13665 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 14100 (+ 0), whole milk-RU2409 spread-770 (- 95), RMB mixed 13700 (- 50), mixed-RU2409 spread-1170 (- 145), BR9000 Qilu spot 13550 (+ 150), BR9000-BR main force-225 (- 40). In the week ended May 17, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 108200 tons, a decrease of 3800 tons, or 3.41%, compared with the previous period. As of the week of May 17, the general trade warehouse inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area was 345400 tons, a decrease of 13400 tons, or 3.72%, compared with the previous period. The total inventory is 453600 tons, a decrease of 17200 tons compared with the previous period. In the first four months of 2024, Ivorian rubber exports totaled 496035 tons, an increase of 3.4 per cent compared with 479915 tons in the same period in 2023. China's cumulative production of synthetic rubber from January to April was 2.834 million tons, an increase of 1.1 per cent over the same period last year. From January to April, the output of rubber tyres increased by 11.4% over the same period last year to 337.794 million. In April 2024, the export volume of minibus tires was 260100 tons, with a month-on-month ratio of-5.71% and + 15.84% compared with the same period last year. Enterprise foreign trade orders shrank, order performance fell short of expectations, and export volume declined. Precipitation interference appeared again in domestic and foreign production areas, raw material prices in production areas strengthened obviously, downstream tire manufacturers resumed work, and real estate policies were introduced, which are conducive to pulling heavy truck demand, supporting all-steel tires, natural rubber continues to go to the warehouse, and rubber prices are on the strong side and fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic inventory expectations and EUDR progress.

Polyester:

TA409 closed yesterday at 5916 yuan / ton, down 0.17%; the spot offer rose 09 yuan / ton, about 7 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4526 yuan / ton, down 0.57%, the basis decreased by 12 yuan / ton to-47 yuan / ton, spot quotation 4490 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8502 yuan / ton, down 0.44%. The spot negotiation price is US $1028 / ton, the RMB price is 8575 yuan / ton, and the base difference is narrowed to 45 yuan / ton. A 300000 t / an ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Anhui has recently been reduced to 40-50% operation, which is expected to last for a long time. The device was previously running at full load. A 500000-ton / year MEG device in South China is scheduled to restart today after stopping for maintenance in mid-late March. The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have declined as a whole, and the average production and marketing is estimated at 4-50%. Crude oil prices at the cost side fluctuated, TA maintenance devices resumed one after another, and PX prices were strongly supported. The demand for TA is weak and dragged, but the centralized overhaul of TA improves the supply and demand structure of TA, and the removal of inventory in May is considerable. From the point of view of ethylene glycol, the overall start-up of ethylene glycol is negative, the peak of coal consumption in June, the possibility of high maintenance of coal-to-ethylene glycol start-up remains to be observed, the starting load of downstream polyester falls, and short-term ethylene glycol concussion is expected.

Methanol:

On Tuesday, Taicang spot prices were 2915 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia North Line prices were 2245 yuan / ton, CFR China prices were 310-315 U.S. dollars / ton, and CFR Southeast Asian prices were 360-365 U.S. dollars / ton. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1200 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3200-3280 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 6850 yuan / ton. Short-term supply side is expected to increase, downstream demand is weaker, mainland inventory may still be under pressure, while the overall port inventory pressure is not great, total inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. Generally speaking, at present, the overall inventory level of methanol is low, and the basis difference is at a high level, superimposed macro expectations are strong, short-term methanol is still treated as strong, and the basis difference is expected to weaken.

Polypropylene:

On Tuesday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7680-7850 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the second line of Yangzi Petrochemical (200000 tons / year) PP plant restart. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-992.31 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-184.67 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-842.67 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-775.21 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is 99 yuan / ton. Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment will resume production, the output is expected to increase, but the range should be small, downstream construction remains stable, although plastic weaving and pipe start is expected to change little, but injection molding may continue to recover, forming support for demand. Overall, the fundamentals are not obviously driven, the recent disk is more affected by methanol, it is expected that the short-term still around the cost of trading, the main contract shock is strong.

Polyethylene:

On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China HDPE spot market was 8600 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the previous working day; the mainstream price of East China LDPE was 9950 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the previous working day; the mainstream price of LLDPE market in North China was 8550 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; polyethylene futures closed at 8579 yuan / ton, 70 yuan / ton lower than the previous working day. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-420 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1444 yuan / ton. Production is expected to increase slightly, but compared with last year's supply pressure is not big, demand is still difficult to improve, agricultural film operating rate will continue to decline, downstream enterprises to rigid demand procurement, so upstream refineries and social inventory to slow down, comprehensive supply and demand weak pattern, polyethylene market is not obviously driven, short-term disk may be affected by macro sentiment and shock is strong, basis weakening.

Polyvinyl chloride:

On Tuesday, the East China PVC market price is loose, calcium carbide method 5 type material 5950-6030 yuan / ton, ethylene material mainstream reference 6100-6250 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price is slightly loose, calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream reference 5850-5910 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 6070-6300 yuan / ton; South China PVC market price stability, calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream reference 6100-6160 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream quotation in 6150-6250 yuan / ton. Futures closed at 6321 yuan per ton, down 33 yuan per ton. Generally speaking, the current valuation level of PVC is not high, and the main contract is far away from the delivery time, the logic of basis regression will not become the main line of trading in the short term, and the market will pick up the demand for trading and repair the valuation, so it is expected that the short-term shock of the main contract of PVC is still strong and the basis is weak.

Urea:

Urea futures prices on Tuesday continued the trend of strong volatility, but the trend was weaker than the previous trading day. As of the close of the main 09 contract at 2186 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.11%. The spot market became slightly stronger, the market price in the mainstream area increased by 100.40 yuan / ton, and the market price in Linyi, Shandong Province increased to 2380 yuan / ton. Yesterday, a number of urea companies spontaneously issued an initiative to ensure domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply and market price stability, indicating that they will not accept export orders for the time being and keep factory prices no higher than May 21, which has affected the sentiment in the futures market. The spot market is still relatively strong supported by manufacturers' pending orders. Taking into account the negative factors such as the later urea supply will be increased, the agricultural demand will enter the wheat harvest period, and the production peak of the compound fertilizer industry is no longer, the urea market price is also expected to be adjusted. On the whole, in view of the weakening expectation of urea fundamentals in the later stage and the stable price of domestic agricultural materials, we can consider the strategy of selling short at every high, and guard against the continuous improvement of macro sentiment and the disturbance of changes in the international market.

Soda ash & glass:

The price of soda futures fluctuated widely on Tuesday, and the trend slowed slightly during the day. As of the closing price of 09, the main force, the contract closing price was 2363 yuan / ton, up 0.9% slightly. Last night, soda ash futures prices were still strong, with the main contract rising more than 3% in intraday trading. Most of the spot market is stable, and quotations in some regions are still slightly higher. From a fundamental point of view, the new line of a large alkali plant in Shandong is overhauled, and the production equipment of some manufacturers is unstable, and the start-up and output of the industry have dropped significantly. Yesterday, the daily operating rate of the soda industry was 81.38%. Demand-side follow-up in general, in the soda price continues to rise in the middle and lower reaches of the speculative atmosphere is obviously weaker, the market rigid demand is mainly promoted. Overall, the degree of disturbance on the short-term supply side of soda ash has increased, and the seasonal overhaul of alkali plants in summer high temperature weather is still expected to bring a decline in supply. From the medium-term point of view, the price center of soda ash is still driven upward, but it is necessary to guard against the resistance in the middle and lower reaches, the impact of imported soda ash and the overall trend of the domestic commodity market.

Glass: glass futures prices fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the main contract closing price of 1657 yuan / ton, up 1.1%. Yesterday, the spot price of domestic float glass fell slightly to 1679 yuan / ton, with a slight differentiation between different regions. Yesterday, the production and sales rate in Shahe area increased to 160%, while the production and sales rate in other areas hovered around 90%. The recent glass futures market trend is different, the spot price performance tends to be cautious, the futures market price is strong under the support of factors such as the frequent real estate policy and the strength of raw material soda ash, and it is expected to continue the strong trend in the future. It should be noted that before the further improvement in terminal demand, the upward space for glass prices may be relatively limited, and we will continue to pay attention to spot transactions and the recovery of terminal real estate demand.