vrarcadesnearme| Methanol: Low inventory of methanol VS low profits of olefins

Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Core point of view: methanol price remains strong after neutral festival.VrarcadesnearmeThe performance of the mainland is stronger than that of the port, mainly due to the better performance of overhaul and superimposed demand in the mainland, but the increase of methanol price is also limited under the background of low olefin profit. On the supply side, there are still a large number of maintenance equipment in the near future, but the peak of maintenance has basically passed, with less new maintenance after mid-May, and it is still difficult for imports to release volume in the short term due to the shipment delay caused by previous negotiations and the impact of non-Iraq maintenance. On the demand side, the performance of traditional demand is still good, there is little short-term change in East China, but the number of follow-up maintenance plans increases, paying attention to the realization of the situation. From the perspective of inventory performance, the overhaul increases and imports are difficult to release, and the performance of the demand side is better, resulting in a low inventory level. Generally speaking, low inventory makes methanol price difficult to fall, but the hidden danger of negative feedback caused by low olefin profit is still there, and the price rise is also limited. Methanol is expected to fluctuate widely, and the middle line will be long after a pullback.

Arbitrage 9-1 anti-arbitrage every high; PP-3MA spread low spread, band operation

Thermal coal: too much pit mouth prices continue to rebound, port prices rise slightly

Domestic supply: overhauling and restarting in parallel, the operating rate does not change much after the festival, and the maintenance loss is still too much.

Import: neutral short-term arrival in Hong Kong is still difficult, import short-term no pressure, import increment is expected to be postponed

Downstream demand: more traditional downstream demand performs better, the MTO plant changes little, but there is a maintenance plan in the later stage, and the demand is expected to weaken.

Upstream profits: short mainland prices rebounded sharply, profits of production enterprises improved significantly

MTO profit: short MTO profit fell sharply after the holiday, and the PP-3MA spread was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years.

Inventory: too many ports and low levels in the mainland

There is still too much overhaul.

Coal: coal is expected to strengthen in peak season

Coal prices in Kengkou and ports have continued to rebound recently, mainly due to market expectations for the peak season of coal. From the seasonal point of view of daily consumption, daily consumption near the beginning of June may gradually pick up, when the current coal inventory is still on the high side, so the rise in coal prices is limited, short-term coal is expected to be still a strong performance of stabilization, the extent of the increase is still concerned about changes in daily consumption.

The operating rate remains low.

As of the week of May 9, the operating rate of methanol plants in China was 69.Vrarcadesnearme.9%, of which the operating rate of coal-to-methanol plant is 76.5%, that of natural gas to methanol plant is 42.8%, and that of coke oven gas-to-methanol plant is 52.6%.

There are too many maintenance devices.

New maintenance devices this week include Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Xinjiang Xinye, Inner Mongolia Eco, Inner Mongolia Donghua, CNOOC South China, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shanxi Wanxinda, Northwest Energy, Inner Mongolia Boyuan, Datu River and other devices are still under maintenance. Zhejiang Sinopec 400000 tons and Lutianhua 400000 tons units restart during the holiday.

Upstream profit performance is better.

The price of coal rose slightly, but with the recent strong price of methanol in the mainland, the profits of coal-to-methanol plants in the mainland continued to rise, and the profits from natural gas to methanol and coke oven gas to methanol were obviously repaired with the strengthening of methanol prices. The profit of theoretical coal production in Inner Mongolia is 157 yuan / ton, the profit of southwest natural gas plant is 140 yuan / ton, and the profit of methanol from Hebei coke oven gas is 675 yuan / ton.

Non-Iraqi devices are overhauled more

One device in ZPC, Iran is being overhauled, and the other device is restarted after a short stop within a week, and the current load is on the low side. Malaysia one set of equipment parking maintenance the other is operating normally, the United States a 1.75 million-ton device parking maintenance, Venezuela a set of device parking maintenance, Norway a set of device parking maintenance. The overhaul of non-Iraqi devices has led to a significant decline in the international operating rate recently.

The traditional demand performs well.

MTO profits fell again after the holiday.

The operating rate of the MTO plant has not changed much. As of May 10, the operating rate of the domestic MTO plant was 82.8%.

MTO profits fell sharply, the mainland methanol prices continued to strengthen after the holiday, and the profits of methanol MTO units purchased from East China and the mainland fell again.

There are many olefin maintenance plans.

Nanjing Chengzhi Phase I plans to stop and repair on May 20th. Xingxing market rumors that the stop on May 10th has not been confirmed. Yangmei Hengtong plans to stop and repair on May 15th. in addition, Pucheng clean energy 700000 tons MTO+ 1.8 million tons of methanol will be stopped synchronously this week.

The downstream operating rate rebounded after the festival.

The traditional downstream comprehensive operating rate rebounded slightly this week. As of the week of May 9, the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid were 32.2% and 97.8%, respectively. The operating rate of dint MTBE was 63.7% and the operating rate of mai DMF was 39.6%. The rebound in the operating rate of acetic acid and MTBE has obviously led to an improvement in demand, but the current downstream profit is still on the low side, and the downstream still receives goods on demand.

The number of newly signed orders and the number of orders to be issued have dropped.

The number of orders to be issued fell at a high level in the first week after the festival, which was mainly reflected in the northwest region, where the number of newly signed orders fell slightly, and the demand for concentrated replenishment before the festival was suspended under the influence of a sharp rise in methanol prices after the festival, and downstream delivery was cautious.

Inventory level is on the low side

Inventory remains at a low level

This week, the port inventory is 62.37 million tons (- 1.23) million tons, and the port negotiable inventory is 205000 tons. This week, the port inventory is slightly removed, mainly due to the impact of the increase in downstream olefin demand caused by the small arrival volume.

The inventory of mainland enterprises rebounded slightly during the week. although there are too many overhauls in the mainland, due to the impact of limited holiday logistics and a slowdown in procurement demand downstream after the holiday, mainland inventories are still low, and there are still too many maintenance equipment. Mainland enterprise inventory is expected to maintain a low level.

Differentiation of downstream raw material inventory

MTO sample enterprise inventory to the warehouse, from the port pick-up volume this week, olefin enterprises have replenishment action, but inventory does not accumulate inventory, more on-demand procurement; pre-festival traditional downstream enterprise inventory significantly increased, mainly due to pre-festival stock demand, inventory is expected to decline this week.

There is a marked decrease in arrivals to Hong Kong.

The number of imported ship reports has dropped significantly compared with the week before the section, which we believe is mainly due to the impact of the superimposed overhaul of some non-Iraqi installations in the price negotiations in mid-April. It is estimated that China's imported shipments will arrive at the port of 48.59-490000 tons from May 10 to May 26, but the subsequent arrival volume is still small. Imports in May may still be lower than expected, and port inventories are still difficult to accumulate.

Focus on the opportunity of MTO profit repair band

The basis remains strong.

The main contract-the basis of East China remains strong, and the current port inventory remains low. If olefins are not stopped in the context of short-term imports, the port inventory may remain low and the port basis may remain strong.

In terms of monthly spread, the 9-1 spread remains within a narrow range of fluctuations. The strong reality leads to a strong near-end price. The spread from September to January continues to weaken and still needs to weaken in reality. However, the current mainland overhauls and traditional demand performance is relatively good. It may be difficult for the monthly spread to continue downward, and it will turn into shocks in the short term.

PP-3MA price spread fell sharply

Methanol prices continued to strengthen after the holiday, but the PP/PE side was weakened due to the sharp fall in crude oil prices. The price difference between PP-3MA on the disk continued to fall and was currently basically at a record low, which also led to an increase in rumors of olefin unit maintenance during the week. Under the current background of low profits in MTO, the probability of negative feedback from MTO increases, and the price/performance ratio of low long PP/PE-3MA price difference is higher.

balance sheet

Monthly balance sheet of methanol