jackofbetterpoker| Everbright Futures: Financial Daily, May 17

Stock index:

Yesterday, the A-share market rose higher and fell back, and Wind rose 0.Jackofbetterpoker.21%, with a turnover of 850 billion yuan. In the corresponding index of stock index futures, CSI 1000 fell 0.15%, CSI 500 fell 0.4%, CSI 300 rose 0.39%, and Shanghai 50 rose 0.49%. The recent correction of the index is that the market is concerned about the fundamental data in the short term.JackofbetterpokerBut it does not change the upward trend of the medium-and long-term index. Recently, the Ministry of Finance announced arrangements for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, involving 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, which began in mid-late May. Earlier, news came from some cities that real estate purchase restrictions had been relaxed. The market as a whole is moving towards optimistic expectations. Before the festival, the Politburo meeting announced that the third Plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee would be held in July this year, and the market had high expectations for the third Plenary session. Medium-and long-term solutions to many topics of market concern, including real estate and debt reduction, are expected to be discussed at the meeting, which is more important for raising the medium-and long-term valuation center of the A-share market. Combined with the fact that the central bank said that buying treasury bonds in the secondary market is one of the monetary policy options, market expectations for medium-and long-term inflation have risen. With the recent strong performance of China's equity assets under the policy support, we believe that this optimism will continue to be transmitted. In terms of basis difference, IM2405 basis difference-10.75 recorder IC2405 basis difference-10.67 Magistracy IF2405 basis difference-2.96 Magi IH2405 basis difference-0.21.

National debt:

Treasury bond futures fell collectively, with the 30-year main contract down 0.35%. The 10-year main contract fell 0.12%. The 5-year main contract fell 0.05%. The 2-year main contract fell 0.01%. In terms of the open market, the central bank carried out a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase, zero put and zero return was achieved on the same day. The inter-deposit pledge repo interest rate is mixed. The 1-day variety was 1.7138%, up 0.38 basis points, and the 7-day variety was 1.8009%, down 0.78 basis points. On Monday, the Ministry of Finance announced the relevant arrangements for the issuance of general treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2024, including ultra-long-term special treasury bonds with a maturity of 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years. It was decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on June 14. The way of issuance is open and market-oriented, which is in line with market expectations. Only a 30-year treasury bond will be issued on December 6. it is estimated that the general issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds this year will be 163 billion yuan, plus 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and the total supply of ultra-long-term treasury bonds in 2024 will increase by 795 billion yuan over last year. As the general ultra-long-term treasury bonds will be issued less in the future, the total supply increment of ultra-long-term treasury bonds is slightly lower than expected. The periodic impact of the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds on liquidity is relatively limited. In the short term, under the stable capital, weak economic repair, the landing background of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the disturbance of real estate policy, the long-end of treasury bonds will be more bearish than the short-end, and the yield curve is expected to continue to steepen.

Precious metals:

Overnight spot gold in London fell first and then rose, rising 1.49 per cent to $2390.87 per ounce and spot silver up 3.99 per cent to $29.742 per ounce. Us CPI grew 3.4 per cent year-on-year in April, unchanged from expectations, down slightly from 3.5 per cent, while core CPI in the US fell to 3.6 per cent year-on-year in April, in line with expectations, but lower than the previous value of 3.8 per cent, the lowest in three years, month-on-month growth slowed for the first time in six months, the market raised expectations for the Fed's rate cut this year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to more than 60 per cent. Gold first suppressed and then rose last night, showing a trend from skepticism to certainty. While the market defined the probability that the Fed would not cut interest rates in June, it began to cut interest rates in September. From this point, it reflects that gold prices have basically priced interest rates in June, and interest rate negotiations in September have become the focus of the game. Coupled with the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, gold prices are strongly supported and pay attention to the performance of gold prices near previous record highs.