odinpoker|芳源股份：24Q1营收35亿同环比下滑，全年负极出货预计增20%+

Newsletter summary

24Q1's revenue is 3.5 billion yuan.Odinpoker, return to the mother net profit 2Odinpoker20 million yuanOdinpokerThe gross profit margin is 21%, and the performance is in line with expectations. The shipment of negative pole is expected to reach 450000 tons, an increase of 20% over the same period last year, and a profit of 0 per ton.Odinpoker.20,000 yuan +. Positive shipments are expected to grow steadily, with profit per ton falling to about 10,000 yuan. The cash flow of operating activities decreased compared with the previous month, and inventory remained low. Maintain the buy rating with a target price of 27 yuan. Risk hint: sales and earnings are lower than expected.

Text of news flash

[: 24Q1 outstanding performance, expected net profit to increase significantly]

24Q1's revenue reached 3.5 billion yuan, down 48% from the same period last year and 27% from the previous year, while the net profit from its mother was 220 million yuan, down 26% from the same period last year and 24% from the previous year. The fair value of the company fluctuated about 70 million yuan, mainly caused by investing in Fangyuan shares; deducting non-net profit of 250 million yuan, down 7% and 10% respectively from the same period last year. The gross profit margin rose to 21%, indicating that the company's performance was in line with expectations.

Negative material unit profit stabilized in 24Q1 and is expected to maintain at the bottom of the year. Negative electrode shipments are expected to reach 90, 000 tons, accounting for a relatively high proportion of overseas customers. Indonesia's first-phase production capacity of 80, 000 tons is under construction, and the second phase is also planned. Shipments for the whole year are expected to reach 450000 tons, an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year. 24Q1's net profit per ton is about 2000 yuan, down about 20% from the previous month, and unit profit is expected to have stabilized.

The unit profit of cathode materials dropped sharply in 24Q1, and shipments are expected to maintain steady growth throughout the year. The shipment of positive electrode is expected to be about 9000 tons. The company provides supporting services for SKI and Panasonic. It has a production capacity of 63000 tons. The project of 50,000 tons of cathode materials in Morocco is expected to start within 24 years, and shipments for the whole year are expected to maintain steady growth. The operating profit per ton is nearly 10,000 yuan, down about 50% from the previous month, and the profit per ton for the whole year is expected to drop to about 10,000 yuan.

24Q1 operating cash flow decreased on a month-on-month basis, while inventory remained low. The cost during the period was 400 million yuan, down 21% from the same period last year, 26% from the previous month, and the expense rate was 12%. The inventory was 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1% over the beginning of the year. The net cash flow of operating activities was 1 billion yuan, down 46% and 19% respectively from the same period last year.

The company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 15.02 yuan 20.21 / 2.454 billion, a year-on-year increase of-9%, 35% and 21%, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14-11-9. In view of the fact that the company is a negative leader, it is valued at 20 times earnings in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 27 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: sales fall short of expectations and profitability falls short of expectations.