livestrippokergame| The Federal Reserve's attitude is biased and crude oil prices remain volatile

I. Market Review

Crude oil futures prices fluctuated and fell this week. The geopolitical risk premium has fallen, with Russian production exceeding the OPEC+ quota in April, Fed minutes in May and higher-than-expected inventories putting pressure on oil prices. As of Friday's close, the main contract closing price of SC crude oil was 599.Livestrippokergame.0 yuan per barrel, down 3.46% from last Friday's closing price.

As of Friday's close, the main contract for Brent crude closed at $80.98 per barrel.LivestrippokergameDown 3.58% from Friday's close, the main contract for WTI crude closed at $76.75 a barrel, down 3.47% from Friday's close.

II. Supply analysis

(1) OPEC crude oil supply

Flower expects OPEC+ to maintain production reduction measures in the third quarter of this year, and further attention should be paid to the June OPEC+ ministerial meeting.LivestrippokergameThe policy of reducing production.

OPEC oil production fell 6.9 per cent year-on-year to 2657.5 million barrels a day in April. According to foreign news on the 8th, Goldman Sachs no longer expects OPEC + to announce a partial lifting of voluntary production cuts in June, but to focus on June 1.LivestrippokergameOPEC + ministerial meeting's production reduction policy.

(2) crude oil supply in the United States

In the week ended May 17, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 13.1 million barrels, the same as the average daily output the week before, and an increase of 800000 barrels over the same period last year. The average daily processing volume of refineries in the United States was 16.482 million barrels per day, an increase of 227000 barrels over the previous week.

Us energy companies added oil and gas rigs this week for the first time in four weeks, energy services company Baker Hughes said in its closely watched report on Friday. The total number of oil and gas rigs in the US, a leading indicator of future production, increased by one to 604 in the week ended May 17, according to the data. Among them, the number of oil rigs increased by 1 to 497, while the number of natural gas rigs remained stable at 103.

Last week, the United States imported an average of 6.663 million barrels per day of crude oil, a decrease of 81000 barrels compared with the previous week, and an average daily import of 207.9 barrels of refined oil, an increase of 215000 barrels over the previous week. U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.73 million barrels per day, an increase of 595000 barrels per day over the previous week and 181000 barrels more than the same period last year. U.S. net crude oil imports averaged 1.933 million barrels per day, 676, 000 barrels less than the week before The total net export of US oil products averaged 4.567 million barrels per day, an increase of 279000 barrels over the previous week.

(3) Russian crude oil supply

Russia's crude oil production in April exceeded that of the OPEC Union and will soon submit a plan to make up for the excess production to the OPEC Union, the Russian Energy Ministry said on Thursday. Russia has pledged to reduce production by 350000 b / d in April from the previous month, a voluntary cut in addition to the 500000 b / d cut announced in February 2023, meaning a target of 909.9 m b / d in April.

But calculations based on data from Russia's Ministry of Energy show that actual crude oil production in April was about 9.418 million barrels a day. Russia promised to expand the voluntary production reduction in May to 900,000 b / d, and the June reduction to 971,000 b / d. If the production cuts are fully implemented, Russia's total production cuts in the second quarter will be roughly the same as those in Saudi Arabia.

Russia's seaborne exports of petroleum products fell 14.6 per cent in April. Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell 14.6 per cent in April from the previous month to 8.415 million tons due to seasonal and unplanned maintenance of refineries and a ban on fuel exports, according to the data. Due to maintenance, technical failures and drone attacks, Russia's primary refining capacity increased by 13.6% in April compared with March.

Russia also imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1 to keep domestic prices stable. Total exports of petroleum products through the Baltic ports of Primorsk, Vesotsk, St. Petersburg and Uster-Luga fell 17.5% from March to 4.535 million tons last month, according to market data.

III. Demand analysis

The IEA5 lowered global crude oil demand growth to 1.1m b / d in 2024, down 140000 b / d from April, mainly because of weak demand in the developed countries of the OECD. By contrast, OPEC maintained its forecast in its monthly report that global crude oil demand would increase by 2.25m b / d in 2024. The two agencies differ widely in their forecasts for crude oil demand growth, in part because of their different views on the transition period of global energy transition.

According to foreign news on May 16, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released a monthly report on Thursday that, as measured by total domestic oil delivery, total U.S. oil demand increased by 0.8% month-on-month in April, but fell 0.9% from a year earlier to 19.9 million barrels per day. The main reason for the slight decline in US oil demand from the same period last year was that gasoline demand fell 3.3 per cent year-on-year, aviation kerosene demand fell 1.5 per cent, and distillate demand fell 7.4 per cent. The demand for other oil products and residual oil increased by 5.2% and 63.1% respectively compared with the same period last year.

The operating rate of refineries in the United States has increased. In the week ended May 23, the operating rate of oil refineries in the United States was 91.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous week.

India's oil demand remains solid. India's oil demand averaged 529.5 million barrels a day in April, up 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, according to the government's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Group (PPAC). The growth of fuel demand varies, with gasoline demand jumping 14.1% year-on-year, while diesel demand is relatively sluggish, falling 1.4%. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that India's oil demand will grow by 2.65 million b / d in 2024 from a year earlier, slower than the 313000 b / d in April, but much higher than the 180,000 b / d growth forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The overall operating rate of domestic crude oil refineries in China is on the low side. As of May 16, the operating rate of refinery capacity was 57.61%, down 7.44% from the same period last year and 1.07% from the previous month.

China's crude oil imports increased in April. The trend of improvement in China's foreign trade is obvious, with the year-on-year growth rate of exports turning from negative to positive in April.

According to data released on the website of the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 44.721 million tons of crude oil in April and 182.067 million tons in January-April, an increase of 2 per cent over the same period last year.

China imported 5.674 million tons of oil products in April and 1177.32 million tons from January to April, an increase of 28. 6 per cent over the same period last year. 6%.

China imported 10.296 million tons of natural gas in April and 43 million tons from January to April, an increase of 20.7 percent over the same period last year.

The data also show that China exported 4.551 million tons of oil products in April and 19.373 million tons from January to April, down 11. 5 percent from the same period last year. 5%.

IV. Inventory analysis

A report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. refinery operating rates continued to rise last week, and net crude oil imports fell by 4.7 million barrels. However, commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, gasoline inventories fell and distillate oil stocks increased.

The EIA report shows that in the week ending May 17, the total U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, were 827.649 million barrels, an increase of 2.82 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 458.845 million barrels, an increase of 1.825 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline inventories totaled 226.822 million barrels, down 945,000 barrels from the previous week; Distillate stocks were 116.744 million barrels, an increase of 379,000 barrels from the previous week.

Crude oil inventories in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the United States, which has received much attention, were 36.32 million barrels, an increase of 1.325 million barrels. In the past week, the U.S. strategic oil reserves were 368.804 million barrels, an increase of 990,000 barrels. Commercial crude oil inventories were 0.81% higher than the same period last year; 3% lower than the same period in the past five years; gasoline inventories were 4.88% higher than the same period last year; 2% lower than the same period in the past five years; distillate oil inventories were 10.48% higher than the same period last year, 7% lower than the same period in the past five years. Total U.S. commercial oil inventories increased by 7.495 million barrels.

5. Market outlook

Russia's output in April exceeded OPEC+ quotas and was negative for oil prices. Currently, the market is focusing on whether the production reduction policy will continue to be extended at the OPEC+ ministerial meeting in June. On the demand side, the IEA has lowered its forecast for oil growth this year, but at the same time, China's crude oil imports have increased. With the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, demand may be expected to be boosted. On the inventory side, EIA crude oil inventories increased more than expected this week, making it difficult for oil prices to drive upward. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's attitude is hawkish and expectations for interest rate cuts have been lowered. Overall, oil prices are expected to remain volatile next week.

Risk points:

Geopolitical risk factors such as OPEC production cuts, demand expectations, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and political conflicts in the Middle East.