androidroulette| [Report] Industrial Silicon-Weekly Report-2024 - 05 -26

SourceAndroidrouletteYide Binhai Coal team

Important Information and Market Summary

Industry information news

According to data from the National Energy Administration, domestic photovoltaic plants were newly installed in April 2024.Androidroulette.37GW, down 1% from the same period last yearAndroidroulette.9%. From January to April 2024, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China accumulated 60.11GW, an increase of 24.4% over the same period last year. By the end of April 2024, the country's cumulative installed solar power capacity was about 670 million kilowatts, an increase of 52.4 percent over the same period last year.

[wafer leader shrinking battery project investment TCL Central 13.8 billion convertible bond issuance cut by 8.9 billion] TCL Central announced that the total amount of convertible bond issuance will be adjusted from no more than 13.8 billion yuan to no more than 4.9 billion yuan, and the scale of N-type TOPCon efficient project will be reduced from 25GW to 12.5GW.

[inner Mongolia Ji Neng Phase II 500MW Photovoltaic Project started] recently, China Nengjian Construction Group has contracted construction.AndroidrouletteThe 1700 MW photovoltaic project of Inner Mongolia Kubuqi Desert Base Ordos New Energy (the second phase of Inner Mongolia Jineng New Energy Co., Ltd.) began. The project is located in Buertaohai Sumu, Zhungeer Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. it is the second batch of key large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects in desert, Gobi and desert areas.

[China Photovoltaic Industry Association: encourage mergers and restructuring of the photovoltaic industry to strengthen the crackdown on vicious competition in sales below cost prices] on the afternoon of May 17, 2024, under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a "Symposium on High-quality Development of Photovoltaic Industry" in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is an industry with a very high degree of marketization, and it is more appropriate to solve the current difficulties of the industry through market-oriented means, but it should also give full play to the role of the government as a visible hand, including optimizing the guiding role of photovoltaic manufacturing industry management policies on industry capacity construction, improving key technical indicators, and so on.

Fundamentals summary

Spot prices: spot prices have loosened and fallen this week, and the performance is still weak. At the beginning of the week, the quotations on the official website of large factories were lowered, and the quotations of other manufacturers also fell, which was weak and stable as a whole. According to the SMM quotation, as of May 24th, the average price of SMM Kunming 42mm was 13850 yuan / ton, which was stable. The average price of 42mm ex-factory in Sichuan was 13400 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 150yuan / ton. The average oxygen supply price of Tianjin port was 12950 yuan / ton, and the price of 99 silicon in Tianjin port was 13050 yuan / ton, all reduced by 50 yuan / ton, while some brands in other areas fell by 50-150 yuan / ton. Spot transactions are limited, the market has not improved, and mainstream prices are still not improving. Some manufacturers pre-sell goods that comply with the new regulations after September, and under the new arbitrage space, cash merchants have inquiry bookings, and some manufacturers give cash merchants a certain profit to quote according to the disk, and the absolute price of this part of the forward order moves up.

Futures price position: new funds enter the market, the market performance is strong, and prices have repeatedly hit recent highs. This week's futures price increase of about 900 yuan / ton, the basis shrank sharply, warehouse receipts are more difficult to digest, the current quotation is not active, consider to continue to move positions. Now there is a deviation, manufacturers hedging and futures inquiry to further enhance the willingness of the market, it is expected that the subsequent warehouse receipt generation will further increase, the current storage capacity has been tight, some warehouses are also applying for capacity expansion. The overall change of the cross-month price difference is little, and the positive structure is maintained.

Production and supply: the supply continues to rise, the northwest operating rate is high, and the overall change is not big. As the southwest region gradually enters the flat water and abundant water period, the subsequent operating rate will continue to rise. After the electricity price in Sichuan fell in May, silicon enterprises will resume production one after another. The operating rate has rebounded from the low level, and the start-up rate in Yunnan has changed relatively little, but it is expected that the resumption of production will increase in June.

Inventory situation: inventory is high, continue to accumulate. The inventory of Baichuan sample factory increased by 2300 tons in the new phase, and the inventory of ordinary warehouse in the port remained stable. According to the sample factory inventory counted by SMM, the sample factory in Xinjiang continued to store 10500 tons this week, and the sample factories in Yunnan and Sichuan continued to remove the warehouse, but by a small margin, the inventory of the social warehouse maintained an increase. From the total inventory of the sample factory warehouse, port social warehouse and futures delivery warehouse, the inventory level for the current period was 604300 tons, with a weekly increase of 16600 tons.

Cost and profit: the overall cost has not changed much this week, and the overall cost of the industry will still move down with the reduction of the southwest electricity price. The profit of the industry is low, but after the disk is higher and the delivery standard is revised in the distant month, the operation of some manufacturers has been improved.

Downstream organosilicon: DMC production fell this week, production is still in an upside-down pattern, manufacturers are still purchasing raw materials to reduce prices.

Downstream polysilicon: with the photovoltaic manufacturing process as a whole into a loss situation, polysilicon manufacturers began to overhaul and reduce production, but from the inventory point of view, it is still in the warehouse, the inventory pressure is huge, the situation has not been alleviated, the silicon price pressure continues to fall, and more manufacturers may enter into the production reduction in the follow-up. At present, procurement in the industrial chain is basically a strategy of multiple batches and small quantities, so it is difficult to release centralized orders.

Downstream aluminum alloy: the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable and runs at a high level. Aluminum alloy market performance is still strong, enterprises to maintain a rigid demand for silicon accessories industry procurement.

Market summary: The current trend of this cycle has deviated. The overall spot market is still stable and weak, and actual demand has not improved. However, the market has surged by about 900 yuan/ton, mostly boosted by the entry of macro funds. The photovoltaic sector stocks also surged during the week. From the news, it is mainly due to the meeting of industry associations to "encourage mergers and reorganizations, smooth the market exit mechanism, and strengthen the crackdown on vicious competition for sales below cost prices", and Saudi Arabia's investment of US$500 billion to create a new future city. It is rumored that Chinese manufacturers have won the largest share of Saudi photovoltaic projects, and relevant news has given a certain boost to the market. After the surge in industrial silicon futures, the basis has significantly narrowed. Manufacturers have entered the market with more hedging, and cash merchants have also made inquiries and reservations. Some manufacturers have given up a certain profit to cash merchants to quote according to the market. The absolute price of these forward orders has moved up. However, the current spot price has not been driven. The trend of the spot market next week is more critical and requires further attention. From an industrial perspective, the fundamentals are still loose. Supply continues to increase this week. The increase in operating rates in Southwest China is relatively certain. The total inventory of the new phase of the sample factory warehouse + port community warehouse + futures delivery warehouse has increased by another 16,600 tons to 604,300 tons., warehouse receipts are difficult to digest and are further overstocked. Downstream demand is average. After some maintenance and production reduction, the inventory of polycrystalline enterprises continues to increase at a high level and has not been alleviated. More manufacturers may enter the production reduction in the future. Currently, procurement in the industrial chain is basically a strategy of multiple batches and small quantities, which makes it difficult to concentrate. Sexual order release. From an industrial perspective, the follow-up is still short, but the market is divorced from fundamentals and prices are jumping or large. We operate lightly and pay attention to new changes in the market.

Current price of industrial silicon

Industrial silicon production inventory

Industrial silicon cost profit

Industrial silicon import and export

Downstream situation

This research report was prepared by Yide Futures Co., Ltd.(hereinafter referred to as "Yide Futures"). The company has the futures investment consulting business qualification approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Zheng Jian Xu [2012] No. 38).

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