sba99| Can "dual-focus" futures be bearish again? Institutions: The probability of stopping falling and rebounding has increased, and it is expected to rebound under macro positive conditions

Financial Union, May 16 (Editor Chen Kandi) At night trading yesterday, coke and coking coal futures fell by more than 0 againsba99.5%。Since May 7, coke has been continuously adjusted back by more than 10%, and coking coal has reached 12%.

in the face of pricesba99Some institutional analysts told the media that with the subsequent issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and since the second quarter of this year, first-and second-tier hot cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Hangzhou have intensively optimized housing purchase restrictions. Demand for commodity terminals is expected to continue to improve. There is limited downside space for the coke futures 2409 contract, and the probability of a rebound increases.

In addition, the operating rate of steel mills has also rebounded month-on-month recently. According to Mysteel data, as terminal demand improves, the transaction volume of rolled products has increased significantly, driving the steel mills to resume production of blast furnaces, and the output of molten iron has steadily rebounded. Mysteel surveyed the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills of 81.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year; the profit margin of the steel mills was 51.95%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 28.14 percentage points year-on-year; The average daily iron output was 2.345 million tons, an increase of 38,300 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 47,500 tons year-on-year.

In addition, Mysteel also calculated that 16 blast furnaces are planned to resume production in May, involving a production capacity of approximately 66,100 tons/day; 4 blast furnaces are planned to be repaired, involving a production capacity of approximately 17,300 tons/day. If production is carried out according to the current statistics of the suspension and production plan, the average daily output of molten iron in May is expected to be 2.336 million tons/day, and coke demand still has strong support.

On the other hand, as the weather warms, June to September is the peak summer electricity consumption, which is often accompanied by improving demand for coal.

Zhang Xing, deputy director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration, told the media that comprehensive research shows that during this year's peak summer period, the national power supply will be generally guaranteed. The power supply may be tight during peak hours in some areas, mainly in Inner Mongolia, East China, Central China, Southwest and Southern China. If extreme and catastrophic weather occurs, the tight power supply situation may further intensify. As the peak summer for power companies approaches, the off-season and peak seasons switch, the adjustment of coal prices ends, and coal prices are expected to rise.

Soochow Securities Research News pointed out that it adjusted its forecast that coal prices would rise to 1200 yuan in May and revised it to rise to 1200 yuan in June, and remains optimistic about coal price expectations. Entering May, power companies need to start hoarding goods for the peak summer, and power procurement is expected to improve; in addition, the impact of safety supervision in production areas continues to exceed expectations, coupled with the withdrawal of old mines, and the annual raw coal output is expected to be reduced by 100 million tons. The contraction of supply will amplify the contradiction between supply and demand during the peak demand season for the power industry, so it is expected to prompt coal prices to rebound again.