crashstake| Gangtise Investment Research Daily| 2024-05-13

Source Gangtise to invest in research

-- Manufacturing | Technology (7)--

[low-altitude economy] experts sayCrashstakeIt is estimated that the annual financial subsidy for low-altitude infrastructure in Anhui Province is about 20 million yuan, the annual financial subsidy in Hefei is estimated to be about 100 million yuan, and the amount of financial subsidy in Wuhu is expected to be similar to that in Hefei. Hefei, Anhui Province, will not make large-scale investment in the low-altitude economy in the short term, and there are not expected to be city-level investment projects before 2026. Anhui Province will mainly develop air traffic within cities, and there is little demand for inter-city routes. The low-altitude economic support policy for Hefei is expected to be released in June 2024, and Wuhu and other cities with conditions will also launch relevant policies. Subsidies for inclusive policies are limited and usually cover only 30% to 40% of the total cost.

[AI big model] experts say that the performance of the DeepSeek-V2 model on Chinese data sets is about 10% lower than that of the latest version of GPT-4, but it has surpassed last year's version of GPT-4. In terms of code generation capability, DeepSeek-V2 model is superior to Llama3 model. At present, the gap between domestic and foreign large head models in the field of large language models is half a year to one year; in terms of visual models, due to the limited computing power of domestic models, the gap is between 1 to 2 years.

[AI applications] analysts said that according to statistics, in April, there were 1771 AI applications worldwide with more than 10,000 monthly visits, including 151domestic AI applications and 64 offshore AI applications. The total number of visits to these 1771 AI applications was 78.Crashstake.500 million times, with a total duration of 9.Crashstake70 billion hours, all higher than the March data, among which ChatGPT traffic is the largest, with 217 million monthly unique visitors, an increase of about 10 million from the previous month, and the fastest growth rate of Kimi, with a monthly visit volume increase of 60.6%.

[semiconductor equipment] analysts said global semiconductor equipment sales fell 6.1 per cent to $100.9 billion in 2023 and are expected to grow 5 per cent and 18 per cent year-on-year in 2024 and 2025 to $105.3 billion and $124 billion. The capital expenditure of 12-inch contract manufacturers is expected to reach $79.1 billion in 2024, and investment in 12-inch semiconductor equipment is expected to grow from $96 billion in 2023 to $137 billion in 2027.

[automotive] experts say that Chinese car exports to the European Union are expected to grow by more than 20% in 2024; the ASEAN market has a good prospect, benefiting from the zero-tariff policies of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, export growth is expected to maintain 1020% by 2025; export growth in Australia and South America is likely to reach 2030% in 2024; and China's overall automobile export growth is expected to be 20% in 2024. In terms of tariff restrictions, ASEAN countries have relatively low tariffs and good relations with China, and there will be no restrictions. Mexico is likely to impose tariffs on auto parts from six tax lines, affecting exports of US $740 million, which is expected to fall by 3040 per cent in 2024. Europe will not impose tariffs on spare parts in 2024, but will increase countervailing duties on pure electric passenger vehicles, which are expected to increase by 1020%.

[heavy trucks] experts from heavy truck dealers in Shandong said that in April 2024, sales of heavy trucks were nearly 40, a slight decline from the previous month, with tractors accounting for about 60% (natural gas vehicles accounted for 40%) and unloading trucks accounting for 40%. Sales of heavy trucks are expected to be about 30 units in May. At present, the freight rate of the tractor is 5 yuan / km, carrying about 35 tons. At present, manufacturers subsidize 20, 000 to 30, 000 yuan per natural gas vehicle. In the case of the same type of car and the same horsepower, the terminal price difference between natural gas vehicle and fuel vehicle is 100000 yuan.

[high-speed copper cable] analysts said that in terms of short-distance connections outside the server system, high-speed copper cable DAC has a stability advantage and cost advantage over AOC. The compound growth rate of high-speed copper cable is expected to be 25% from 2024 to 2027, and the market size is expected to exceed US $1.2 billion by 2027.

-- consumption | Medical Care (5)--

[vaccine] analysts said that the number of 2024Q1 BG biological live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine batches issued was close to about half of the level in 2023, while the number of GSK recombinant herpes zoster vaccine batches issued by Zhifei Biological Agent was close to the level of 2023, making it promising for the domestic herpes zoster vaccine market.

[drugstore] analysts said that 2024Q1 retail drugstore sector performance improved significantly compared with 2023Q4, but affected by the high base year-on-year 2023Q1 is still under pressure. It is expected that the revenue end of the plate will gradually improve in 2024, and the profit end will show a trend of differentiation, which is mainly affected by factors such as gross profit margin and cost input. In 2023, the total number of seven leading pharmacies increased by 25%, and the number of directly operated stores increased by 19%. As of 2024Q1, the total number of seven leading drugstores reached more than 70, 000, and the opening speed is expected to maintain a high level throughout the year.

[IVD] analysts said that the overseas market has become an important market for the performance growth of domestic IVD companies, and companies have realized the expansion of overseas channels. Although sales of related products have declined in 2023, many companies have accounted for more than 20% of overseas revenue by introducing conventional products through open channels. China's IVD going out to sea is at a relatively early stage, and the deepening of localization and breakthroughs in high-end customers will boost the growth of overseas markets.

[air conditioners] Air conditioning dealers in Henan said that the bad weather in March 2024 put some pressure on the retail end, with about 14800 cards installed in April, down 10 per cent from a year earlier. Midea has launched a large number of high-end and special machines this year, adopting a polarization strategy; Gree has carried out incentives and digestion within the channel this year, without much innovation; Haier's overall price is higher; Hisense's promotion policy is more radical; TCL2024's annual market action is not big; Changhong's online market price in Henan has risen. The price difference between Midea air conditioners and Gree air conditioners has narrowed recently, the on-hook price difference has been reduced to 180 million 250 yuan, the cabinet price difference has remained unchanged, and the average on-hook price of Midea has increased by 50 yuan to 80 yuan.

[condiment] according to analysts, the scale of the compound condiment industry in 2023 is 96.7 billion yuan, the driving factor of B-end compound condiment is mainly the improvement of catering chain, the demand of reducing cost and increasing efficiency of small B-end restaurants, and the main driving factor of C-end is the change of consumption habits. Among them, the income scale of hot pot base material and Chinese polyphony in 2023 was 14.9 billion yuan and 17.2 billion yuan respectively, and the compound growth rate of hot pot base material and Chinese polyphony from 2019 to 2023 was 10.5% and 12% respectively. It is estimated that in the next three years, the annual compound growth rate of hot pot base material scale will be about 10%, and the annual compound growth rate of Chinese style compound adjustment will be 12.4%.

-material | Energy (4)--

[Silicon and manganese] experts said that in March 2024, domestic steel mills deliberately lowered the price of silicon and manganese, superimposed supply pressure, many mining areas actively stopped production, the industry operating rate dropped to a low this year, Q1 month-on-month decreased 4pct. The price was as low as 5795 yuan / ton at the end of March, and the domestic price of silicomanganese rose to 7700-7800 yuan / ton on May 6, which was the same as the same period last year. In addition, Hegang Group issued a silicon-manganese bidding plan for May on May, with a volume of more than 8000 tons, while its normal monthly demand is 15000 tons, and the inventory of steel mills is generally 5-10 days.

[chemicals] analysts said that so far, the start-up rate of PX for xylene, ethylene glycol and methanol has increased by 9.7%, 3.6% and 6.5% respectively.

[polycarbonate] experts said that the apparent domestic consumption of PC (polycarbonate) in 2023 was 2.8 million tons, of which modified PC accounted for about 40 percent, and Taiwan's PC exported 33 to 340000 tons of Chinese mainland annually. At present, the domestic PC market price is about 15600 yuan / ton, the comprehensive cost is about 13500 yuan / ton (excluding freight), and the industry operating rate is about 80%.

[commodities] analysts said that in April 2024, the commodity price index rose 1.9 per cent from a year earlier and 1.3 per cent from a month earlier, with large increases in the non-ferrous and energy sectors. The non-ferrous category increased by 8% year-on-year; the energy category increased by 4.1% year-on-year; the iron and steel category fell 8.3% from the same period last year, down 2.3% from the previous year; and agricultural products fell 2.8% from the same period last year, down 7% from the previous year. 2024Q1 commodities show an overall upward, structural market rhythm, is expected to lead to the improvement of the bulk supply chain.

-- Finance | Infrastructure (3)--

[real estate] analysts say that house prices in four first-tier cities are basically down 25% from their all-time high, and prices in first-tier cities are basically back to the 2016-2019 range. Analysts estimate that the subsequent decline in house prices across the country could exceed 25%, or even close to the level of about 30%.

[infrastructure] analysts said that as of May 5, 2024, the cumulative amount of special bonds issued was 720 billion yuan, accounting for 18.5% of the total quota of 3.9 trillion yuan for the whole year, and the pace of issuance slowed down compared with 2023. The growth rate of 2024Q1 infrastructure investment is 6.5%, but the actual workload is not large, and the overall situation of 2024Q1 orders of central enterprises is not good. 2024Q1 bond issuance has been slow, in part because the debt market has made way for government bonds, and 2024Q2 issuance is expected to accelerate.

[chemical Logistics] analysts said that the operating income of the listed companies in the entire chemical logistics sector of 2024Q1 was 5.1 billion yuan, an increase of 21% over the same period last year, and the net profit of its parent was 470 million yuan, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. Chemical inventory is low in 2024, downstream refinery capacity continues to be put into production, chemical logistics demand is expected to have positive changes, Milwick and Yongtaiyun have great room for growth in hazardous chemicals forwarder business. Domestic shipping companies and tank operators have higher certainty of profit repair because of the stability of the supply side. From the perspective of foreign trade demandCrashstakeChina is the largest exporter of refinery and chemical industry, and the overall transport demand of foreign trade chemical tankers is relatively large.